Why this works
People predict that their own tasks will finish sooner than they do, and are less biased about other people's tasks. In one study, students expected to finish their thesis in about 34 days on average; it took about 56, and about 30% finished by the date they had predicted (Buehler, Griffin and Ross, 1994).
Your own past tasks are the most honest guide to the next one, which is why the checker turns your history into a single ratio.
- Source: Buehler, R., Griffin, D., & Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366-381. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.67.3.366
Worked example
| Task | Planned | Took |
|---|---|---|
| Solve 15 Networks PYQs | 45 min | 70 min |
| Revise Bode plots | 30 min | 40 min |
| Finish the lab record | 60 min | 90 min |
| Ratio | 135 min | 200 min, so 1.48x |
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